The pump price of Premium Motor Spirit (petrol) could rise to as much as N1,000 per litre in the coming days following a fresh increase in crude oil prices on the global market.
Petroleum marketers said the recent jump in international crude prices above $70 per barrel may lead to another round of price adjustments for both imported and locally refined petroleum products.
The development coincides with a recent upward review of petrol prices by the Dangote Petroleum Refinery, which raised its ex-depot price from N739 to N839 per litre. Oil prices also climbed past the $70 mark on Thursday, reaching their highest level in about five months.
Crude prices rose by about three per cent on Thursday amid fears that global supply could be disrupted if the United States launches military action against Iran, a key crude producer within the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries.
According to Reuters, Brent crude futures gained $2.31, or 3.4 per cent, to close at $70.71 per barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate increased by $2.21, or 3.5 per cent, to trade at $65.42 per barrel. Oilprice.com reported that by Friday afternoon, Brent had settled at $70.89 per barrel, while WTI stood at $65.80, reflecting continued price increases.
Brent crude serves as the global benchmark for oil pricing, and movements in its price typically influence the cost of refined petroleum products worldwide.
Reuters further reported that escalating tensions between the US and Iran pushed both Brent and WTI into technically overbought territory, with Brent recording its highest close since July 31 and WTI reaching levels last seen on September 26.
Reports indicated that US President Donald Trump is considering several options against Iran, including targeted strikes on security forces and leadership figures to encourage protests, according to multiple sources. Israeli and Arab officials were also quoted as saying that air power alone would be insufficient to destabilise Iran’s clerical leadership.
In Iran, plainclothes security operatives were reportedly involved in mass arrests and intimidation campaigns aimed at discouraging further protests.
“The immediate (market) concern is the collateral damage done if Iran takes a swing at its neighbours or, possibly even more tellingly, it closes the Strait of Hormuz to the 20 million barrels per day of oil that navigates it,” PVM analyst John Evans was quoted as saying.
Data from the US Energy Information Administration showed that Iran was the third-largest crude oil producer within OPEC in 2025, behind Saudi Arabia and Iraq.
Reacting to the situation, the National Publicity Secretary of the Independent Petroleum Marketers Association of Nigeria, Chinedu Ukadike, warned that sustained increases in crude oil prices could directly impact domestic petrol prices.
He explained that crude oil prices and exchange rates are key factors influencing the pricing of petroleum products, adding that fluctuations in either could alter pump prices in Nigeria.
Ukadike noted that petrol prices could rise to N1,000 per litre if the upward trend in crude prices continues, particularly in areas located far from refineries and fuel depots.
“As an independent marketer, we don’t normally want the price of petroleum products to go up; any increase you see now will be because of this international manoeuvre and everything happening in the international community in terms of crude oil price.
“The crude surge will definitely affect our local market. The price of petroleum products will come down if the crude price goes down, that’s the common principle of the market,” Ukadike said, admitting that the price of petrol may rise to N1,000, especially “in some other places that are not closer to the refinery or depots. That’s the speculation”.
He added that rising crude prices are also exerting pressure on marketers by weakening their purchasing power.
“Crude oil is important in refining petroleum products; once it goes up, the prices of petroleum products will also go up. We are gearing towards that. The only problem is that it is also giving us pressure in terms of our purchasing power because too much naira is now pursuing a few litres of petroleum products,” he added.
Ukadike further observed that fuel sales have slowed compared to the December festive season, as higher prices have forced many consumers to cut back on consumption.
“The market is becoming slow now, unlike in the festive season when the prices were low. People were filling their tanks then, but now, people are becoming conservative because of the price increase,” the IPMAN spokesman stated.
A major oil marketer and petrol importer, who requested anonymity due to lack of authorisation to speak publicly, also confirmed that petrol prices were likely to increase, noting that the landing cost of PMS could exceed N900 per litre if crude prices continue to rise.
“There is already pressure on funds to import the product (petrol) now, based on the pricing info we are getting from our suppliers. The simple reason is the surge in crude oil prices, caused by the tension in the Middle East,” the dealer stated.
“So N1,000/litre (for petrol) is not far from the range. It was sold around that price before, when the price of crude hovered around $75/barrel, and the exchange rate was a bit higher than what we have now. That is purely the market dynamics,” the petrol importer added.
Checks showed that most filling stations have adjusted their prices following the Dangote refinery’s latest price review.
In Lagos, pump prices ranged between N830 and N859 per litre. The Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited sold PMS at N849 per litre on Friday, while MRS filling stations dispensed the product at N839 per litre. Some outlets, however, sold at prices slightly lower than those offered by Dangote-affiliated stations.
Meanwhile, the Dangote Petroleum Refinery has reiterated its ability to meet Nigeria’s fuel demand and supply volumes exceeding estimated domestic consumption.
In a statement issued on Thursday, the refinery said it could supply 75 million litres of petrol daily, compared to Nigeria’s estimated consumption of 50 million litres. It also stated that it could deliver 25 million litres of diesel daily against an estimated demand of 14 million litres, as well as 20 million litres of aviation fuel daily, significantly above the estimated domestic requirement.
(PUNCH)
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