Nigeria’s healthcare system is grappling with an escalating manpower crisis, as the number of licensed medical doctors in the country has dropped to about 40,000—far short of the estimated 300,000 required to meet the health needs of a population exceeding 220 million.
Findings show that the decline represents a sharp fall from the roughly 55,000 doctors recorded in 2024. At the time, the Minister of Health and Social Welfare, Prof. Muhammad Pate, disclosed the figure during an interview on Channels Television’s Politics Today.
Pate had explained that at least 16,000 Nigerian doctors left the country within the last five years, while about 17,000 others were no longer in active service.
Fresh data from the Lagos State Commissioner for Health, Prof. Akin Abayomi, now indicates that the number of practising doctors has reduced by 15,000 in just one year.
Abayomi made the disclosure while delivering a presentation at a one-day leadership dialogue in Lagos titled “Strengthening PHC Systems: A Joint Leadership Dialogue.” He identified the shortage of skilled manpower as one of the most pressing challenges confronting Nigeria’s health sector.
The dialogue, organised by the Lagos State Primary Health Care Board with support from development partners, focused on obstacles limiting the effectiveness of primary healthcare centres and explored strategies for building sustainable systems with long-term impact.
According to Abayomi, Lagos State alone has only about 7,000 doctors attending to an estimated population of nearly 30 million residents, a figure he described as grossly inadequate.
He noted that the state requires an additional 33,000 doctors to adequately respond to its healthcare demands.
“Nigeria currently has about 40,000 doctors against an estimated need of 300,000, while Lagos alone requires about 33,000 doctors but has only about 7,000,” he said.
The commissioner added that the doctor-to-population ratio in Lagos remains far below acceptable standards, placing enormous pressure on the available workforce.
As part of efforts to address the shortage, Abayomi said the Lagos State Government is investing in its newly established University of Medicine and Health.
“Within five years, UMH will produce about 2,500 healthcare workers annually, including laboratory scientists and other essential cadres,” he stated.
The ongoing exodus of health professionals—popularly referred to as the japa phenomenon—has continued to undermine Nigeria’s health system, with doctors, nurses, and pharmacists among the most affected.
A survey conducted in 2017 by a Nigerian polling organisation in collaboration with Nigeria Health Watch revealed that about 88 per cent of Nigerian doctors were seeking employment opportunities overseas at the time.
Industry stakeholders have linked the worsening brain drain to chronic underfunding, poor infrastructure, difficult working environments, insecurity, and weak implementation of health policies.
Data from the General Medical Council of the United Kingdom shows that 11,001 Nigerian-trained doctors are currently practising in the UK.
The President of the Nigerian Medical Association, Prof. Bala Audu, recently cautioned that Nigeria has shifted from passive brain drain to becoming a direct recruitment ground for foreign countries in search of skilled medical professionals.
In an interview, Audu disclosed that international recruiters now travel into Nigeria to hire doctors—particularly specialists such as obstetricians, gynaecologists, and paediatricians—by offering better pay, infrastructure, and working conditions.
He expressed concern that the loss of specialists is occurring at a time when Nigeria’s population continues to grow and mortality indicators remain troubling.
“Many of our doctors are not even going abroad to look for jobs. Foreign governments now come into Nigeria to pick doctors and take them away,” Audu said.
“We are still having more births, yet maternal deaths remain high because the skilled birth attendants who should care for these women are reducing every day.”
Audu further warned that in some medical specialties, Nigerian doctors practising abroad may now outnumber those working within the country. He attributed the situation partly to the government’s failure to significantly improve doctors’ welfare despite existing policy frameworks.
Experts have warned that if current emigration trends persist, Nigeria will be unable to train enough health workers to meet its expanding healthcare needs. Estimates suggest that it would take at least 20 years to produce the more than 400,000 health workers required to close the gap.
A former President of the NMA, Prof. Mike Ogirima, described the country’s doctor-to-patient ratio as “horrible,” noting that Nigeria currently has about one doctor to 8,000 patients—well below the World Health Organisation’s recommended ratio of one to 600.
Ogirima, in an earlier interview, said Nigeria produces an average of just 3,000 doctors annually, making it extremely difficult to address the estimated shortfall of nearly 300,000 doctors.
“If we are producing just 3,000 doctors yearly, it will take at least 10 years to catch up—and that is assuming no doctor leaves the system,” he said.
“We cannot afford to wait that long. That is why doctors are overworked, exhausted, and burned out.”
He called on the government to prioritise investment in medical training, improve security, and provide modern equipment, warning that retaining doctors would remain a challenge without proper incentives.
Medical practitioners have continued to demand urgent reforms to stabilise Nigeria’s healthcare system, stressing that national development depends on a motivated and well-protected health workforce.
They also urged federal and state governments to immediately enrol doctors in comprehensive insurance schemes as part of broader welfare and retention measures, warning that failure to act decisively would further deepen the crisis.
(PUNCH)
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